India is set to represent 16% of global consumption at purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2050, according to a report by World Data Lab. This marks a significant rise from 4% in 1997 and 9% in 2023.
The report, titled “Dependency and Depopulation: Confronting the Consequences of New Demographic Reality,” indicates that only North America, with a projected 17% share, will surpass India in global consumption by mid-century.
This shift is attributed to a burgeoning young population and rising incomes in regions like emerging Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean, West Asia, North Africa, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa. These areas are expected to contribute over half of the world’s consumption in the next 25 years.
Conversely, advanced economies in Asia, North America, Greater China, Western Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe are projected to see their share of global consumption decline from 60% in 1997 to just 30% in 2050.
The report also highlights a demographic transition, noting that India’s share of the global population is expected to decrease from 23% in 2023 to 17% in 2050 and further to 15% by 2100. Despite this, India’s total population is anticipated to reach 1.505 billion by 2100, reflecting a 5% increase from 2023.
Between 1997 and 2023, India’s demographic dividend contributed an average of 0.7% to its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth. However, this advantage is expected to diminish as the population ages, underscoring the need for policies that address the challenges of an ageing society.
These findings suggest significant implications for businesses and policymakers as they adapt to shifting consumption patterns and demographic changes in the coming decades.
