Report: Religious Demography of Kerala (2008-2021)

Rising Religious Imbalance in a Declining Fertility Regime

This report analyzes the data on live births and deaths by religious community in Kerala from 2008 to 2021. The findings reveal significant shifts in the religious demography of the state, particularly in the context of declining fertility rates. Kerala, known for its advanced demographic transition, has witnessed a rising imbalance in the growth of different religious communities, with Muslims experiencing higher natural growth compared to Hindus and Christians.

Key Findings

1. Share of Muslims in Live Births Overtakes Hindus

• By 2019, Muslims accounted for 44% of live births, surpassing Hindus at 41%.
• This is despite Hindus constituting 54% of the population (Census 2011), while Muslims make up 27%.
• The share of Christians in live births declined to 14% in 2019, down from 18% in 2011.

1. Lower Share of Muslims in Deaths

• Muslims accounted for less than 20% of total deaths, significantly lower than their 27% share in the population.
• Hindus, on the other hand, accounted for 60% of deaths, higher than their 54% population share.
• Christians had a 19% share in deaths, slightly above their 18% population share.

1. Rising Natural Growth of Muslims

• The natural growth (births minus deaths) of Muslims has been disproportionately high.
• Between 2008 and 2019, Muslims contributed 76% of the natural accretion to Kerala’s population, up from 48% in 2008.
• In contrast, Hindus and Christians contributed 25% and 11%, respectively, during the same period.

1. Striking Trends in 2021

• In 2021, Kerala’s total population grew by 80,000, with Muslims adding 1 lakh to their numbers.
• Hindus grew by only 1,000, while Christians experienced a decline of 25,000.
• This indicates that Hindus and Christians are nearing or entering a phase of population decline, while Muslims continue to grow.

1. Decadal Growth (2011-2021)

• Over the decade, Muslims accounted for 16 lakh of the 26 lakh natural accretion to Kerala’s population.
• Hindus contributed 6.44 lakh, and Christians added 2.88 lakh.
• As a result, the Muslim share in Kerala’s population is estimated to have risen from 26.6% in 2011 to 29.1% in 2021, while the Hindu share declined from 54.7% to 52.6%.

1. Declining Fertility and Religious Imbalance

• Kerala’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has been below the replacement level (2.1) since the early 1990s and stood at 1.46 in 2021.
• Despite this, the TFR of Muslims remains higher than that of Hindus and Christians, contributing to their disproportionate growth.
• The imbalance is exacerbated by the fact that Hindus and Christians are experiencing demographic decline, while Muslims continue to grow.

Analysis of Live Births and Deaths

Live Births

• The total number of live births in Kerala peaked at 5.60 lakh in 2011 and declined to 4.20 lakh in 2021.
• The share of Muslims in live births rose from 36.3% in 2008 to 44.4% in 2019, while Hindus declined from 45% to 41%.
• Christians also saw a decline, from 17.6% to 14.3%.

Deaths

• The number of deaths remained relatively stable at around 2.5 lakh annually.
• Muslims accounted for less than 20% of deaths, Hindus for 60%, and Christians for 19-20%.

Natural Accretion

• Muslims contributed 76% of the natural growth in 2019, up from 48% in 2008.
• Hindus and Christians contributed 25% and 11%, respectively, during the same period.

Implications

1. Worsening Religious Imbalance

• The data suggests that the religious imbalance in Kerala’s population is likely to worsen as fertility rates decline further.
• Muslims are projected to continue growing, while Hindus and Christians may experience population shrinkage.

1. Need for Comprehensive Data

• The analysis highlights the importance of collecting and publishing detailed data on births and deaths by religious community across all states and union territories.
• Improved Civil Registration System (CRS) data can help monitor demographic changes and inform policy decisions.

1. Demographic Transition Challenges

• Kerala’s experience underscores the challenges of managing demographic transitions in a multi-religious society.
• The state’s declining fertility regime, coupled with unequal growth among religious communities, calls for targeted interventions to address social and economic implications.

The data from Kerala reveals a significant shift in religious demography, with Muslims experiencing higher natural growth compared to Hindus and Christians. This trend is occurring in a context of declining fertility rates, which has led to a shrinking population among non-Muslim communities. The findings underscore the need for regular monitoring of demographic changes and the publication of disaggregated data to better understand and address the implications of these shifts.

Kerala’s experience serves as a microcosm of the broader demographic challenges India may face as it transitions to lower fertility rates. Addressing these challenges will require a nuanced understanding of the interplay between religion, fertility, and population dynamics.

Reference:
Data sourced from the Annual Vital Statistics Reports of Kerala (2008-2021), published by the Department of Economics & Statistics, Government of Kerala.