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Japan is facing a severe demographic crisis, with its population declining at an alarming rate. The latest figures indicate a drop of over 800,000 people in 2023, a trend that has persisted for more than a decade. If this continues, Japan’s population, 125 million in 2023, could shrink to 90 million by 2075 and further decline to 75 million by 2100.
Why is Japan’s population declining?
- Low Birth Rate: At 1.26 births per woman, Japan’s fertility rate is among the lowest globally, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Ageing Society: Over 29% of Japan’s population is above 65, leading to a shrinking workforce.
- Strict Immigration Policies: Unlike Western nations, Japan has tight immigration controls, limiting the influx of young workers.
- Economic and Social Pressures: High living costs, demanding work culture, and lack of work-life balance discourage young couples from having children.
Consequences
- Labour Shortages: With fewer working-age people, industries are struggling to find employees.
- Economic Stagnation: A smaller population leads to lower consumer demand and slower GDP growth.
- Pension Crisis: With fewer taxpayers, funding social security and healthcare for the elderly is becoming a growing concern.
What is the government doing?
The Japanese government has introduced financial incentives for childbirth, relaxed parental leave policies, and invested in automation to address labour shortages. However, experts warn that unless birth rates rise or immigration policies change, Japan’s decline is irreversible.
Japan’s crisis is a warning for other nations, including China, South Korea, and even parts of India, where fertility rates are also falling.
Global Divide – Growth in Some, Decline in Others
The world’s population is undergoing a historic transformation. Some nations, particularly in Africa and South Asia, are experiencing rapid growth, while others—Japan, China, and much of Europe, are shrinking at alarming rates.
This global divide is reshaping economies, labour markets, and international power dynamics. Which countries will dominate the future, and which will struggle to survive?
The fastest growing nations – Africa’s rise
By 2075, the world’s population will peak at 9.5 billion, before beginning to decline. This growth will be driven almost entirely by Africa and parts of South Asia.
Top Growing Countries (2025–2075):
| Country | 2023 Population (millions) | 2075 Projection (millions) | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 223 | 550 | +160% |
| Ethiopia | 127 | 295 | +130% |
| Tanzania | 67 | 250 | +270% |
| Uganda | 47 | 200 | +330% |
| Pakistan | 240 | 350 | +70% |
Why are these countries growing?
- High Birth Rates: Fertility rates range from 4 to 7 children per woman.
- Young Populations: More than 50% of people in these nations are under 25.
- Urbanisation and Economic Expansion: More people are moving to cities, boosting job creation.
By 2100, Nigeria is expected to surpass the US as the third most populous country, shifting economic power away from Europe and East Asia.
The fastest shrinking nations – A population crisis
In contrast, many developed nations are facing steep population declines due to aging, low birth rates, and restrictive immigration policies.
Top Shrinking Countries (2025–2075):
| Country | 2023 Population (millions) | 2075 Projection (millions) | Decline (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1.41B | 1.00B | -30% |
| Japan | 125 | 90 | -28% |
| South Korea | 52 | 28 | -46% |
| Italy | 60 | 40 | -33% |
| Germany | 84 | 65 | -23% |
Why are these countries shrinking?
- Low Birth Rates: Fertility rates are below 2.1 births per woman.
- Ageing Population: More elderly than young people, reducing workforce numbers.
- Strict Immigration Policies: Unlike the US, these countries restrict immigration.
- Urban Lifestyles: Career pressures and high living costs discourage childbirth.
Japan and South Korea are in crisis mode, with their populations expected to shrink by nearly half by 2100. Labour shortages, economic slowdowns, and pension crises will be their biggest challenges.
Japan’s population crisis – A case study
Japan is at the forefront of global population decline. Its shrinking workforce and ageing society are making economic sustainability difficult.
Key challenges Japan faces
- Fertility rate of 1.26 per woman: One of the lowest globally.
- Ageing workforce: Over 29% of the population is above 65.
- Strict immigration policies: Limits on foreign workers mean fewer young replacements.
- High cost of living: Cities like Tokyo and Osaka make it hard for young families to thrive.
Consequences of Japan’s decline
- Labour shortages: Industries struggle to find skilled workers.
- Economic slowdown: Fewer consumers mean lower GDP growth.
- Pension and healthcare crisis: Fewer taxpayers to support an ageing population.
Government response
Japan has introduced:
- Financial incentives for childbirth.
- Work-life balance reforms to encourage family growth.
- Automation and AI integration to replace human workers.
Despite these measures, experts warn that Japan’s decline is irreversible unless birth rates rise or immigration policies change.
A world in transition
By 2050, global demographics will look very different:
- Africa will be the centre of population growth.
- China, Japan, and Europe will shrink dramatically.
- The US will rely on immigration to sustain growth.
- India will peak at 1.6 billion before declining.
Japan’s crisis is a warning for other nations. Without strong policies for immigration, workforce development, and family support, many countries could face a similar fate.
