By Hiren Gandhi
The Middle East has entered a critical and precarious phase, with escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program raising the possibility of military action by the United States and Israel. According to reporting by Axios in February 2026, the two nations are closely coordinating and preparing for potential strikes, while diplomatic efforts continue amid uncertainty.
The United States has deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups to the region, along with more than 50 advanced fighter jets, including F-35, F-22, and F-16 aircraft. This level of deployment signals serious preparation and gives the U.S. the capability to launch rapid military operations if negotiations fail. Israel has expressed full support for decisive action and is coordinating closely with U.S. military planners.
Recent nuclear negotiations in Geneva have shown limited progress, with key disagreements remaining unresolved. President Donald Trump has stated that he will decide within the next 10–15 days whether to continue diplomatic efforts or order military strikes. The U.S. objective remains to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.
Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. In June 2025, Israel conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with subsequent U.S. involvement. Although the conflict concluded after 12 days, the underlying nuclear issue remains unresolved, and Israel is advocating for stronger measures should diplomacy fail.
The prospect of conflict has already affected global markets. Oil prices have risen amid fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international shipping route. Any military action could impact global energy markets, trade flows, and financial stability. Countries such as India, heavily reliant on energy imports, could face inflationary pressures and economic challenges.
While war is not yet confirmed, the probability of conflict has increased significantly. The United States continues to pursue diplomacy but remains fully prepared for military action if negotiations falter. Israel has expressed readiness to support decisive measures to neutralise the nuclear threat.
The next two weeks are expected to be decisive. The outcome will determine whether diplomacy prevails or military conflict becomes unavoidable, making this one of the most serious geopolitical risks currently facing the world.
Secretary — InGlobal Business Foundation (IBF)
Director — ReNis Agro International LLP, Ahmedabad, India
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