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In the previous part, we explored the global divide between rapidly growing and shrinking populations. We saw how Africa and South Asia are driving global growth, while nations like Japan, China, and much of Europe face alarming population declines.
Today, we shift our focus to Japan, one of the most extreme cases of population decline, and examine what this crisis means for the world.
Japan’s declining population: A warning for the future
Japan’s shrinking population and aging workforce present a challenge that many other nations will soon face. With a fertility rate of just 1.26 children per woman, Japan’s population is shrinking by nearly one million people per year.
How fast is Japan shrinking?
| Year | Population | Decline (%) |
| 2023 | 125 million | -0.7% per year |
| 2075 | 90 million | -28% total |
| 2100 | 75 million | -40% total |
If this trend continues, Japan’s economy and social system will struggle to survive.
What’s causing Japan’s population crisis?
Japan’s crisis is driven by four key factors:
- Low birth rate: The fertility rate of 1.26 is far below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Ageing population: 29% of Japan’s population is aged 65 or older, creating a growing elderly dependency ratio.
- Limited immigration: Unlike countries like the US or Canada, Japan has strict immigration laws, preventing young foreign workers from filling gaps.
- Economic and social pressures: High living costs, demanding work culture, and lack of work-life balance discourage young couples from having children.
The Consequences of a shrinking Japan
If the trend is not reversed, Japan will face:
- Severe labour shortages: Fewer young workers will mean lower productivity, slower economic growth, and a decline in global competitiveness.
- Pension and healthcare crisis: With fewer young people paying taxes, Japan may struggle to support its elderly population.
- Abandoned cities and villages: Rural areas are already witnessing ghost towns, with more to come as populations shrink.
Can Japan reverse its population decline?
The Japanese government has introduced several policies to encourage childbirth and ease labour shortages. However, results have been disappointing.
Government measures to boost population
| Policy | Effectiveness |
| Cash Incentives for Families (Up to ¥1 million per child) | Limited impact – financial benefits alone have not encouraged more births. |
| Paid Parental Leave & Work-Life Balance Reforms | Some impact – but Japan’s intense work culture makes work-life balance difficult. |
| Relaxed Immigration Laws for Skilled Workers | Minimal impact – Japan remains highly selective with foreign workers. |
| AI & Robotics for Labour Shortages | Successful in industries like manufacturing and healthcare, but not a long-term solution for ageing. |
Despite these measures, Japan’s birth rate has not improved, and the population continues to decline.
What Japan’s crisis means for the world
Japan’s crisis is not unique, many nations are following the same path.
Which countries will face a similar decline?
- China: Expected to lose 400 million people by 2100.
- South Korea: Could see a 50% population drop by 2100.
- Italy, Germany, and Russia: All projected to see major declines.
India’s Southern States: Kerala and Tamil Nadu already have fertility rates below replacement level.
This means Japan’s economic and social struggles will soon be global issues.
Lessons for other countries
Japan’s experience offers key lessons for nations facing population decline:
- Encouraging work-life balance matters: Simply offering financial incentives isn’t enough, countries must also change cultural and workplace expectations.
- Immigration policies need reform: Nations must adapt immigration laws to attract young workers and sustain economic growth.
- Technological adaptation is crucial: Japan is leading in robotics and AI to compensate for labour shortages, others will need to follow.
The future of global demographics: What’s next?
By 2075, the world will look very different. Some regions will be booming with young populations, while others will struggle to maintain economic stability.
Key global population trends by 2075
- Africa will drive global population growth, particularly in Nigeria, Ethiopia, and DR Congo.
- India will peak at 1.6 billion, then decline, following Japan’s path, but with a delay.
- Japan, China, and much of Europe will shrink dramatically, affecting their economic power.
- Urbanisation will continue to rise, with megacities dominating economic and political influence.
- Ageing societies will create new challenges, from healthcare costs to pension crises.
The world must prepare for a population shift
Japan’s population crisis is a preview of the future for many nations. Countries that ignore these demographic shifts risk severe economic stagnation and societal decline.
The question is: Will nations learn from Japan’s struggles, or will they repeat the same mistakes?
One thing is certain, the choices made today will shape the global economy, society, and political landscape for the next century.
