India–USA Trade Dialogue Insights
By Hiren Gandhi
Secretary – IBF | Director – ReNis Agro International LLP | Brand Ambassador – Namaste Hanoi, Vietnam
The US Dollar is not just a currency – it remains America’s strongest weapon. Under Donald Trump’s leadership, the dollar plays a central role in shaping both foreign and economic policy.
How is the US Dollar a Weapon for America?
As the world’s leading reserve currency, the US Dollar dominates global trade and finance.
- Around 40% of global trade invoices are denominated in USD.
- It accounts for 88% of foreign exchange transactions.
- Nearly 58% of global reserves are held in USD.
This dominance gives America unique power. Trump leverages it to:
- Impose sanctions on countries like Iran and Russia.
- Control the SWIFT system and dollar-based transactions to enforce global policies.
- Apply trade pressure on partners such as India to align with US interests.
Why is Global Confidence in the Dollar Declining?
In 2025, the dollar’s value dropped by 10.7%. The share of USD in global reserves has slipped to 58%, down from historic highs. Countries under sanctions are exploring alternatives such as the Chinese Renminbi or local currencies.
At the same time, central banks are buying gold aggressively – diversifying away from the dollar, hedging against inflation, and protecting themselves from geopolitical risks.
Trump’s Pressure on India
Trump has introduced what many call a Triple Whammy for India:
1. Imposing high tariffs on Indian goods.
2. Revoking sanctions waivers for the Chabahar Port project where India has invested heavily.
3. Introducing a $100,000 fee on H1B visas, hurting India’s IT sector.
Additionally, tariffs on Indian pharmaceuticals. These measures are designed to pressure India into concessions during trade talks.
Mission 500 – Expanding India–US Trade
At the Modi–Trump summit in February 2025, the two leaders announced “Mission 500” – a target to expand bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from the current $191 billion.
To achieve this, the US is pressing India to:
- Buy more US oil and gas instead of Russian energy.
- Open its agriculture market for US corn and soybeans (despite India’s concerns over genetically modified crops).
- Purchase more US defense equipment, including fighter jets to replace ageing MiG-21s.
India’s Balancing Strategy
India continues to follow a policy of multi-alignment and strategic autonomy.
- On one hand, it strengthens security cooperation with the US and the Quad alliance.
- On the other, it maintains deep economic and strategic ties with BRICS, Russia, and Asia.
This balancing act allows India to benefit from both blocs while protecting its independence.
Trade Talks – The Road Ahead
Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s visit to the US , pushed negotiations forward. Talks are progressing towards mutually beneficial outcomes, though final agreements are yet to be signed.
The next Quad Summit will likely set the tone for deeper India–US engagement, though Trump’s visit to India remains uncertain.
The US Dollar remains a formidable weapon in Trump’s global strategy. While confidence in the dollar is gradually eroding due to sanctions and rising debt, it continues to dominate global trade and reserves.
For India, the challenge is to carefully navigate between US pressure and new opportunities. If handled wisely, “Mission 500” could unlock a new era of growth in India–US relations.
