In geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or enemies — only permanent interests. Nations don’t act on emotions; they act on strategy, leverage, and timing. Today’s world isn’t shaped by wars on battlefield — it is shaped by trade routes, tariffs, currencies, alliances, logistics and technology dominance.
The global power game is being re-written. And each leader plays according to their national interest.
Trump’s Tariff Game — Shock Today, Leverage Tomorrow
Trump’s tariff policy is not just about trade deficits — it is a calculated economic weapon.
- Hidden Interest Real Objective
- Re-industrialize USA Force industries & jobs back to America
- Break China’s supply chain power Slow China’s tech & export dominance
- Political mobilisation “America First” narrative to secure key constituencies
- Strategic decoupling Gradually separate US tech & supply chains from China
- Defend dollar system Prevent rise of alternate currency trade blocs
- Trump believes in short-term shock for long-term gain.
China responds selectively — temporary relief, no permanent concession — because Beijing sees Trump as a phase, not a structure. China’s Silent Counter-Strategy — Play the Century Game
China doesn’t react emotionally — it calculates generationally.
- Strategy Execution
- Avoid direct confrontation Verbal promises, delayed commitments
- Build parallel world order BRICS, BRI, RCEP, Digital Yuan
- Attack dollar monopoly Bilateral currency trade with Russia, GCC, Africa
- Regional military assertion Taiwan pressure, South China Sea dominance
- Supply chain leverage Rare earths, EV minerals, battery tech
China plays long game diplomacy, believing:
“America plays elections, China plays centuries.”
Beijing’s aim is slow erosion of US influence, not immediate conflict.
Putin’s Geopolitical Prism — Empire, Routes & Energy
Putin’s strategy is built on geography, memory, and pipelines.
- Hidden Interest Strategy
- Re-shape Eurasia Strengthen BRICS, SCO, Eurasian Trade Routes
- Control energy arteries Oil, gas, wheat, and Arctic shipping routes
- Expand influence sphere Central Asia, Belarus, Eastern Europe
- Expose NATO limits Draw out Western fatigue & division
Russia’s weapon = Energy + Trade Routes + Commodities. Europe understood too late that political sanctions cannot erase pipeline dependencies.
Putin’s doctrine is clear:
“Who controls the trade routes & energy, controls the future.”
Modi Ji’s Strategy — Negotiation Through Sovereignty
India does not rush trade deals to please anyone — it negotiates from strength.
- Protect strategic sectors Dairy, MSME, pharma, medical devices
- Manufacturing first PLI, domestic capacity building before free trade
- Strategic neutrality Stay independent of US-China conflict
- National price & security No compromise on domestic welfare for short-term gain
India first. Deal later.
Trade partnerships must support national strength — not substitute it.
India’s Modern National Interest Doctrine
• Multi-alignment, not alliance dependency
• Strategic autonomy in defense & technology
• Rupee-trade and currency sovereignty
• Supply chain resilience inside India
• Trade corridors & logistics dominance
India is designing a future where it does not need to choose sides. India’s Trade Corridors — The Silk Route of the 21st Century. Chabahar Port — India’s geopolitical masterstroke
- Bypass Pakistan Access Central Asia & Afghanistan
- Balance China’s Gwadar Counterweight to BRI
- Link to INSTC India-Iran-Russia-Europe route
- Avoid Suez choke-point Faster, cheaper logistics
India, Iran & Russia are quietly building New Eurasian Trade Belt, reducing distance, cost & Western choke-point risk.
🇺🇸 India: The Essential Pillar of US Indo-Pacific Policy
Without India, QUAD would be symbolic — with India, it is strategic.
Why US needs India:
• Only real counterweight to China in Asia
• Fastest growing large market
• Defense & naval power in Indian Ocean
• Tech, pharma, and talent ecosystem
• Gateway to ASEAN + Indian Ocean region
While US lowers tariffs for ASEAN (Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Japan) —
India watches, evaluates, and repositions without losing autonomy.
The Real Great Game: Trade Routes, Currency & Tech
- Bloc Objective
- China-Russia-India Eurasian routes, BRICS settlement, de-dollarisation
- US-West Dollar dominance, tech leadership, military & sanctions power
This is a race for:
• Trade route dominance
• Energy control
• Currency supremacy
• Semiconductor & AI leadership
• Supply chain control
- World Order is Resetting This is not a trade war — it’s a civilization-level restructuring. Country Goal
- USA Retain global order leadership
- China Replace the order
- Russia Re-shape Eurasia & energy routes
- India Rise independently & balance both
India plays patient diplomacy with strategic intensity — and today, global powers need India more than India needs them. The future belongs to those who control routes, resources, technology, and currency trust.
Secretary — InGlobal Business Foundation (IBF)
Director — ReNis Agro International LLP, Ahmedabad, India
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