The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth on December 22, 2032, has increased to 2.3%, according to recent observations. The space rock, measuring between 40 and 90 metres, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile.
Currently over 45 million kilometres from Earth, the asteroid is moving further away. It is expected to remain visible until early April before disappearing until 2028. The European Space Agency (ESA) states that the chances of impact remain low, with a 99% probability of a safe flyby.
NASA’s planetary defence experts are closely tracking 2024 YR4 to refine its projected trajectory. “While the impact probability is currently higher than usual for near-Earth objects, further observations will likely lower the risk,” said Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer.
If necessary, defence measures such as kinetic impactors, nuclear deflection, or gravity tractors could be considered. NASA’s successful Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022 demonstrated that redirecting hazardous asteroids is possible. ESA is also developing the Hera mission to analyse asteroid deflection techniques further.
For comparison, asteroid 2007 VK184 once had a 1 in 1,820 chance of impact but was later ruled out as a threat after additional data improved trajectory estimates. Scientists believe a similar scenario may occur with 2024 YR4.
Updates on the asteroid’s trajectory and any required planetary defence strategies will follow as more data becomes available.
